Opinion
Autodesk CEO Andrew Anagnost presenting keynote address at Autodesk University 2023
(source of all images: Autodesk)
Autodesk University’s themes of the last several years seems to be that the future is uncertain, but Autodesk will save you from the uncertainty -- if you allow it to. "Though the uncertainty we are facing is increasing, so is the technology available to us... Ignore this disruption and you risk getting left behind," warned Autodesk CEO Andrew Anagnost during his keynote address at AU 2023 [source].
The year before, during AU 2022, Autodesk wanted manufacturers to replace their existing systems with a new all-compassing cloud service [source]. The year before, manufacturers were instructed that digital collaboration is now a necessity [source]. Before that, it was the need for the death of the file [source]. As I look around today, the file remains strong, drafting has been transforming digitally since the 1980s, and cloud services have been assisting users since the 2010s.
This year, AI is the solution to those 78% of us who are more worried now than at the height of covid, says Anagnost, quoting a study his firm commissioned in 2022 [source]. "We've gone from talking about the promise of AI, to seeing it make real progress.”
These words, spoken optimistically last November from the big stage in Las Vegas, came just as dozens of lawsuits challenged LLM-based generative AI firms, alleging they were feeding copywritten material to their large-language models illegally. [Update: New lawsuits demand LLM-based AI firms remove hallucinations that had generated false information about users.]
Since AU 2023, we've seen modern AI software generate images of non-white 1943 Nazi soldiers (Google Gemini [source]), refuse to answer queries considered too controversial (Microsoft Copilot [source]), and incorrectly answer voting-related questions (several AI systems [source]).
Never mind. Autodesk plans to make its AI help us to become more agile and more creative, by analyzing data, gaining insights from it, and automating non-creative tasks.
“There is no AI without actionable data,” explained Raji Arasu, Autodesk’s chief technology officer. The data that Autodesk AI needs to feed on is your intellectual property, 40 petabytes of which you’ve uploaded to Autodesk’s cloud.
The legal ramifications have yet to be fully worked out, notes AEC Magazine editor Martyn Day, but you will be nudged to share: “We have to get people comfortable with how much of your data you want to share with the greater good, versus what you want to keep for your own proprietary abilities,” Day quoted Anagnost as saying during an AU press conference [source].
Aiming For Electric Cars
For the keynote example, executives went to car manufacturing, which is odd, given that Autodesk has little presence in that field, other than in automotive styling. Nevertheless, electric vehicle makers, such as Rivian, are well-suited as examples of new, small companies producing complex products.
Rivian uses Autodesk’s VRed for vehicle styling and Fusion for CNC [computer numerical control] manufacturing, along with Construction Cloud for managing its buildings.
Electric car manufacturer Rivian using Fusion for CNC parts
“What an incredible glimpse into the disruption happening in automotive,” enthused executive vp of design and manufacturing Jeff Kinder, speaking of Rivian. “The automotive industry has reached a tipping point, but a tipping point is coming to all your industries,” he warned.
Perhaps not quite yet. Soon after AU came to an end, sales of electric vehicle began to stall as manufacturers and customers seemed to prefer gasoline-powered and hybrid cars [source]. Poster-child Rivian laid off staff in early 2024 and lowered production estimates amid worsening losses [source]. “Change seems certain, until something unforeseen happens,” explains Tom Goodwin, author of Digital Darwinism [source].
What’s New in Fusion
At AU, Autodesk emphasized the abilities of Fusion Cloud. It’s a centralized database residing on the cloud that distributes uniform sources of information to users. It is meant to handle everything from the design studio through to the shop floor, giving real-time access to designs, simulations, electronics, manufacturing, and factory operations. Note that Fusion Cloud is a work in progress.
Autodesk graphic of Fusion bringing manufacturing processes together
New in Fusion MCAD software are configurations to generate multiple variants of the same product, something competitors have had for quite a while now. Rather than create new model files, however, Fusion records the variations to a cloud database, which could make variants easier to manage.
Autodesk is counting on AI to automate repetitive processes in Fusion, such as making initial designs, creating documentation, and operating the shop floor. Autodesk acquired Blank AI for its AI-based car shape design software, which will read in your previous automobile styles and then generate new ones.
Soon, AI will translate 3D models into fully-dimensioned 2D drawings “with the click of a button.” In CAM, the time to generate tool paths might get up to 80% faster using AI analysis.
Controls in Blank AI for generating car shapes
To handle factory floor communications, Autodesk in 2022 acquired ProdSmart for scheduling and tracking production. Last year, it acquired FlexSim for 3D simulations of manufacturing facilities, warehouses, and even health facilities; it also simulates people motions.
FlexSim simulating operations for a warehouse design
Fusion supports software from other vendors, too. In 2022, it was Ansys (acquired by Synopsis this last January) for its signal integrity analysis for PCB designs, and last year Cadence for its electrical design software. Changes made in any program are updated in the others.
For Fusion in 2024, Autodesk plans to emphasize cloud data collaboration, core capabilities, and AI with automation. In CAM, for instance, there will be advanced touch/avoid milling strategies, and additional support to eliminate gouges and collisions. To try out new functions early, consider signing up for the Fusion Insider program at autodesk.com/campaigns/fusion-360/insider-program.
What’s New in Inventor
Autodesk would love you to replace Inventor with Fusion. The company made no mention of Inventor during the keynote, even though the venerable MCAD program hit a milestone this year by turning 25. Nevertheless, Autodesk continues to update it.
Here are some of the functions that are new [source]. The browser has a new Finishes folder that specifies material coatings and surface finishes -- such as polished aluminum or case hardening -- on faces, parts, assemblies, and manufacturing processes.
Elbows no longer need to be just 45- or 90-degrees, and you can define elbow styles. Sketches, like text, can be wrapped and projected onto a non-planar faces. Three-D weld symbols are now a 3D annotation type. Revolved faces can define the axes of patterns; in addition, patterns now have incremental and fitted positioning methods.
Inventor can now send IPT part files to Fusion 360 for creating manual inspection tasks. Models shared between Inventor and Fusion 360 can send alerts that they might need to be updated, following changes to one or the other.
What Ralph Grabowski Thinks
Autodesk repeatedly states it has been working on AI for “over ten years” [one of many sources: 23:45 in keynote address] by redefining generative design as AI. Despite the decade-long headstart, the company, in my opinion, doesn’t seem to have decade’s-long results to show. AI-powered automated drawings, for example, were promised by the end of 2023, and now are “arriving very soon” in 2024 [source].
Autodesk promises that “Done well, [AI] has the transformative power to understand and address the capacity [constraint] issues all of you face.”
But who checks the inputs to, processing of, and outputs from AI? The foundations of engineering are facts, not promises. By opening the AI Pandora’s Box, we gain the good with the evil: Security researchers earlier this year designed an AI text input that generates worms to steal data stored by AI systems [source].
CAD is mature, and so vendors hunt for new services to provide new revenues. During AU, executives declared several times, You need to change the way you work. This sounds to my ears like they were disguising an appeal: Please buy our new software.
I’d argue that the best person to know how you need to work, is you. As long-time technology commentator Andrew Orlowski encourages us, "'Everything you know is wrong'... was gaslighting. Lots of things you know are actually right, because you’ve worked them out through reasoning or experience. They have not suddenly become wrong.” [source].
Source: https://issuu.com/glaciermedia/docs/des_marapr24_ask_de/10
It's interesting the 'sharing' seems to mean your data with Autodesk, and your money with Autodesk.
Posted by: Robin Capper | May 26, 2024 at 11:03 PM