Jon Peddie Research created a stir last year when it figured that there might only be about four million [see update] active CAD users in the world. Their researchers spent a bunch of time looking at a variety of source materials, and then came up with the number that was horrifyingly low for an awful lot of us in this industry.
Last month, another researcher determined that something like 25% of a CAD vendor's claim of customers are active users. This was based on determining how many had paid-up subscriptions, especially those aligned with CAD vendors who demand annual remittances. Naturally, the percentage is somewhat higher for expensive CAD systems, lower for cheaper ones.
Update
Kathleen Maher of Jon Peddie Research corrects me:
I saw your debate about actual CAD users and I saw that you were using old data that we talked about several years ago. Those numbers are indeed low and do not reflect the installed base.
We just published a new report in which we put the yearly upgrade/purchase numbers at 4.22 million for 2009 -- down considerably from 2008 at 5.47 million. I don't think there's going to be a huge increase in 2010, but 2011 should see a rise as industries recover.
(This does not translate, necessarily, to people leaving the industry since people will make do with what they have until they feel they can afford to upgrade, renew their license, or buy new software.)
From Jay Vleeschhouwer, we learn that the active maintenance base of 3D CAD seats is in a range of 925,000 - 1 million, where 3D CAD consists of the heavyweights, ranging from Inventor and SolidWorks to Pro/E and Catia.
Last month, another researcher determined that something like 25% of a CAD vendor's claim of customers are active users. This was based on determining how many had paid-up subscriptions, especially those aligned with CAD vendors who demand annual remittances. Naturally, the percentage is somewhat higher for expensive CAD systems, lower for cheaper ones.
Update
Kathleen Maher of Jon Peddie Research corrects me:
I saw your debate about actual CAD users and I saw that you were using old data that we talked about several years ago. Those numbers are indeed low and do not reflect the installed base.
We just published a new report in which we put the yearly upgrade/purchase numbers at 4.22 million for 2009 -- down considerably from 2008 at 5.47 million. I don't think there's going to be a huge increase in 2010, but 2011 should see a rise as industries recover.
(This does not translate, necessarily, to people leaving the industry since people will make do with what they have until they feel they can afford to upgrade, renew their license, or buy new software.)
From Jay Vleeschhouwer, we learn that the active maintenance base of 3D CAD seats is in a range of 925,000 - 1 million, where 3D CAD consists of the heavyweights, ranging from Inventor and SolidWorks to Pro/E and Catia.
Even subscription numbers are not really all that accurate. Many companies (particularly now) carry more subscriptions than users. Easier to get rid of the user than the license! At the very least, subs numbers have a lag time when staff reductions occur...
Posted by: Wesley Benn | May 28, 2010 at 01:29 AM
Ralph,
That must include both active 2D & 3D CAD users, no? What happens if you pull out all the 2D users?
Posted by: Jeff Waters | May 28, 2010 at 02:45 AM
One metric to explore could be how well the CAD publications are doing. Anybody try that yet?
Posted by: Anon | May 28, 2010 at 05:55 AM
I agree, 4 million seems low. I've had license pools as low as 30% of the installed base and I suspect most organizations can run effectively at 60%. In my previous role my team managed more than 1800 users running several CAD engines all licensed at a 3:5 ratio. True, installed base doesn't imply active, but it can give us another reference point. Just based on Autodesk's numbers applying this ratio gets us 4 million CAD users. Include Bentley, Desault, and others and this estimate seems off.
Posted by: Mark | May 28, 2010 at 08:04 AM