Over at Seeking Alpha, Naveen Selvaraj posts some interesting charts on Autodesk's performance over the last three years -- specifically documenting its decline in revenues since September's start of the recession.
The first chart shows how revenue from licenses has plummeted, while revenue from maintenance continues to grow too gradually -- resulting in the net 33% fall in gross revenues about which Autodesk told us last week.
Mr Selvaraj, however, fails to note that the post-recession increase in maintenance revenues is partly artificial (because Autodesk can only report 25% of the annual amount it receives each quarter). Some of this quarter's increase in maintenance/subscription revenue still reaches back to the sunny pre-recession times of last summer. So the next couple of quarters will be interesting to watch, to see whether subscription revenues continue upward.
For now, subs are saving Autodesk; imagine the company's revenues without them!
Mr Selvaraj goes on to also note that cuts in operating expenses have been insufficient to save gross profits from deflating, so far.
Autodesk ceo Carl Bass concluded his opening remarks to financial analysts this way:
An L-shaped recovery: now there's a scary thought.
See Mr Selvaraj's charts here:
seekingalpha.com/article/156492-autodesk-not-out-of-the-woods-yet-despite-earnings-call-optimism
The first chart shows how revenue from licenses has plummeted, while revenue from maintenance continues to grow too gradually -- resulting in the net 33% fall in gross revenues about which Autodesk told us last week.
Mr Selvaraj, however, fails to note that the post-recession increase in maintenance revenues is partly artificial (because Autodesk can only report 25% of the annual amount it receives each quarter). Some of this quarter's increase in maintenance/subscription revenue still reaches back to the sunny pre-recession times of last summer. So the next couple of quarters will be interesting to watch, to see whether subscription revenues continue upward.
For now, subs are saving Autodesk; imagine the company's revenues without them!
Mr Selvaraj goes on to also note that cuts in operating expenses have been insufficient to save gross profits from deflating, so far.
Autodesk ceo Carl Bass concluded his opening remarks to financial analysts this way:
The caveat is that our business has been reset at a lower level, so whether this economic cycle is going to be U-shaped or L-shaped -- or any letter or number or hieroglyphic--, our financial condition is solid with over $1 billion in cash and no debt. We are going into the third quarter confident that Autodesk is well-positioned for the market’s eventual recovery.
An L-shaped recovery: now there's a scary thought.
See Mr Selvaraj's charts here:
seekingalpha.com/article/156492-autodesk-not-out-of-the-woods-yet-despite-earnings-call-optimism
Naveen, see the 2nd chart in your piece again. You seem to indicate a negative trend in the numbers with a thin red line pointing downward. But I see a positive trend in the last three quarters, with a lower revenue decline in the latest quarter compared to 3 quarters ago. Is it a case of \"let me dump on ADSK so the media will report it\" ?
The rest of your conclusions (need lower OpEx, expect lower revenues, expect lower margins) are NO BRAINERS that any MBA student could have said. You get paid to do this at the place you work? Tell me it aint so!
Posted by: Can Read Charts | Aug 18, 2009 at 07:44 AM
\"Is it a case of \"let me dump on ADSK so the media will report it\" ?\"
No, we can use the USD $16 billion/year that it cost customers as a direct and proximate result of a core strategy of hindering data interoperability, if really wanted to 'dump on them'.
Posted by: Tony Tanzillo | Aug 20, 2009 at 10:12 AM