Listening to Autodesk's quarterly conference calls for several years, it struck me recently that the CEO always stated that 3D is 10% of the installed base. No growth.
During the August call [autodesk.com], an analyst asked my question (by coindidence). The CEO's response: it's because the denominator is also growing (AutoCAD, LT, etc). He implied it might be tough to get higher than 10%.
Another analyst wanted to know why Autodesk classed AutoCAD as a 2D program. The CEO admitted that 3D has been in AutoCAD for over ten years, but the differentiator is that programs considered "3D" (Inventor, Revit, Civil 3D) are model-based, where as AutoCAD is schematic.
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