Nicholas Carr asks on his Weblog: "Will Google win the enterprise?". He quotes the CIO [chief information officer] of The Weather Channel:
"We're not far from fostering greater productivity with Google's name on it." The CIO earlier notes how productivity increased when software moved from mainframes to desktop computer; he figures the next leap will occur once Web-based apps are stronger than those running on desktops.
Why will Google win over Microsoft and others?
+ Google is unencumbered by legacy architecture.
+ Google has a utility computing infrastructure already in place that more advanced than what any big enterprise IT vendor can at this point offer -- even Microsoft is only in the planning stages for that.
+ Google offers more than a search engine, something William Gates III is blind towards, at least in his public utterances.
+ Google increments a larger set of simple flexible services, leaving it to individual businesses to join the services into what they need -- creating the new corporate IT architecture.
+ Google understands how the Web can be made the new desruptor, just as the PC was 20 years ago.
+ Google doesn't need to worry about protecting the profits generated by an aging OS and apps (Windows and Office).
A quote from a Google manager implies the company will have business services deployed in 5-10 years.
Despite all this, the past is not dead. Carr reminds us that Cobol still performs useful work running on mainframe computers. That was the mistake of the Internet bubble of 1998-2000: nothing shifts overnight, and nothing shifts absolutely.
After all, I still use email software written ten years ago. It works just fine.